inherently different

Archive for May 29th, 2007

By nature I am a gambler. In fact, at one point one might say my gambling was an issue with me… not a problem, because problem denotes negative experiences. I never lost money I didn’t have. I would fluctuate from being ahead by $50k to being absolutely broke-ass. I never borrowed money, nor did I ever float a balance and accrue a vig.

In high school, I hated math. Not because I wasn’t good at it, but because it didn’t interest me. Unless of course it related odds making, I couldn’t exert the energy to give a rats ass about how two trains traveling in different directions at different speeds mattered. Now if those two trains were racing, and you could bet on it, I could figure it out in a heart beat. While some people may question my musical taste as it relates to punk rock, I seriously doubt anyone could go toe to toe with me over the course of a football season betting the line. I am able, after the first three weeks of the NFL season, to predict scores to within 3 points, over or under, of every game being played on a given Sunday. No lie.

Back in 1998, I made an extra $5k to $10k a week betting on football and an additional $10k to $20k a week betting on baseball. I was on a huge run… almost a 89% win rate and I knew the end was near. I could feel it in the pit of my stomach like a dog knows an earthquake is coming. I went to the horse track (a relatively new gambling challenge for me) and laid out 9 different bets, all long shots, each for over $5k. I lost them all. I would like to say I knew what I was doing, but the truth is I was getting out of hand. I needed to remember what it was to lose big and doing something stupid brought it all back to me. One bright morning not long after my horse racing experience, I woke up early, visited my bookie, collected what I had coming, and quit betting on sports for the most part. I never again bet on baseball and only rarely bet on football.

Notice I didn’t say I quit gambling. Hell, I gamble everyday just by swimming in the ocean. Of course, most people don’t realize how the odds are in their favor every fucking day of their lives. For instance, the odds…

of being murdered: 18,000 to 1
of being struck by lightning: 576,000 to 1
of being killed by lightning: 2,320,000 to 1
of being killed in a shark attack: 300,000,000 to 1

Now, you don’t have to understand math to know that taking chances is part of life. I realized early that every day is a gamble. You can’t possibly know the outcome, but you can be reasonably assured that whatever happens, will most likely not result in death. Even if you take extreme chances, the odds are still in your favor.

So… run with scissors… eat before swimming… have unprotected sex with Nigerian intravenous drug using hookers… don’t worry… the odds are you will live to tell me about it.

NOTE: Odds are generally stated in the form of a ratio. For example, 3 to 1 indicates the odds against a particular outcome. The first number (3) represents the chance of failure in relation to the total number of chances (4); the second number (1) represents the chance of success against that same total.

Chance is represented differently. Using the same numbers as above, the chance of something occurring would be described as 1 in 4.